Anonymous threats and lone wolf attacks, increasing fears on cyber security and concerns over immigration will generate significant debate over foreign policy and how to mitigate the security risk posed by terrorist organizations. There will also be an increasing focus on how to manage the global cyber threat, including the growing concern of state sponsored involvement and complexity of attacks on private business.
Domestic policy will continue to focus on protecting borders, limiting the movement of people from war zones or stemming illegal immigration. This issue will be a key political battleground in Europe especially with concerns over open borders and free movement of labour. The rise of nationalism is a particular concern.
Some of the key trends in 2015 will include increased investment in technologies that provide improved situational awareness, both for law enforcement and the intelligence services. “Citizen safety is back at the top of the political agenda and funding will be made available to combat technologically astute adversaries,” says Vice President for Aerospace, Defence & Security at Frost & Sullivan, Steven Webb. “Cyber security will also remain a key concern. Greater collaboration and information sharing between government and industry is expected as executives become increasingly aware of the threat to their business operations and shareholder value. However, the extent of collaboration and rate of investment will continue to lag behind the mounting cyber threat to critical national infrastructure.”
Frost & Sullivan makes the following predictions for 2015:
1. Frost & Sullivan expects a minimum of 10 significant cyber security acquisitions in 2015 as the threat increases, incidents become more widespread, public concern mounts and end-users invest. Industry, jostling for market position, will continue to build its cyber portfolio through acquisition and partnerships.
2. Whilst it is difficult to quantify what constitutes a major cyber event, in 2015 Frost & Sullivan expects the increasing trend for publicly acknowledged cyber incidents to continue. By the end of the year we expect all the sectors that constitute Critical National Infrastructure to have been breached, from airports to utilities, government systems to oil & gas. This will extend beyond IP theft to operational incidents and downtime.
3. Global border security investment will grow at over 7 percent in response to individuals and goods moving across borders. Increasing concerns over illegal immigration, displacement of people from conflicts and the rising threat of terrorism moving across borders will lead to an increasing focus on border protection.
4. Internet of Things and public safety case studies will become increasingly widespread in 2015 with the US and Europe likely to tender and award significant contracts for IoT related hardware and analytics. 2015 will be widely recognised as the year of market acceptance although concerns over security will initially hinder rapid market growth. We expect upwards of 10 significant case studies in 2015.
5. Wearable devices or body worn video will become ubiquitous across US and European police forces. The Michael Brown case in the US has accelerated adoption but the trend was fast developing before there was a call for greater police accountability. Whilst body worn video is able to ensure the safety of both officers and citizens, the trend towards wearable devices will feed the growth of IoT.
6. In 2015 Frost & Sullivan expects India to deliver on its commitment to improve city infrastructure and safety. At the end of 2014, after years of debate and little action, Mumbai announced its 6,000 camera program. Now Surat and Mumbai are being addressed, we expect a further 10 Indian cities to announce major programs in 2015.
7. The recent events in Australia, Canada and France, coupled with increasing terrorism threat levels across the globe, will generate debate on intelligence and privacy. The increasing concern about privacy laws and technologically sophisticated terrorism networks will eclipse the backlash against the NSA and protection of personal data. We expect the use of web intelligence and big data analytics to increase throughout law enforcement in 2015 as budgets are reconsidered. In parallel to this we expect the legal process in at least one G20 country to be updated to allow agencies to more effectively tackle global terrorist networks.
8. Whilst we believe investment will increase in big data analytics, IoT technologies and integrated security solutions, we do not believe that there will be significant investment from law enforcement for UAS in 2015. Whilst there will be some contract wins, complications related to airspace exist, safety is a concern when flying over populated areas and the return on investment not entirely clear. UAS will become widely adopted by law enforcement, but not in 2015.