The worldwide installed base of both smart and legacy credentials will grow from 9.8 billion in 2018 to 11.5 billion in 2023, according to ABI Research.
With increased rates of international travel and government focus shifting to border control and security of citizen’s data, significant regional and innovation trends are beginning to develop in the Government ID market.
“When it comes to regions, identifiable trends are emerging as it pertains to the objectives that credential programs are looking to achieve,” said Sam Gazeley, Digital Security Analyst at ABI Research.
“In African nations, there is a clear focus on providing national IDs that have payment functionality, bringing financial inclusion to a largely underbanked population, and increasing commerce among countries within the IGAD trading bloc.
“In Latin America, there is a trend toward issuing smart driver’s license programs, spearheaded by Brazil, an innovative project, encompassing a smart physical credential alongside a mobile driver’s license companion. In North America, developments in Real ID in the wake of identity legislation has prompted a drive for scrupulous citizen-issued credentials.”
The number of smart card shipments is forecast to increase from 618.8 million in 2018 to 732.7 million in 2023. This growth is linked to many credential programs kicking off or ramping up in the forecast period and will see a shortening of the gap between legacy and smart credentials, with 44% of all world credentials in circulation in 2023 having a smart format, up from 37% in 2018.
National IDs will have a strong showing in shipment volumes, with 440 million units shipped in 2018, forecast to increase to 490 million in 2023. This is due to several large-scale national ID projects kicking off in Ghana, Zambia, Nigeria, Kenya, and Italy, supported by the ongoing deployment of eID credentials, such as My Number cards in Japan, Turkish e-ID cards, and the Philippines issuance following legislative changes to make the document mandatory.
Innovation in the market will primarily be driven by smart-card vendors Gemalto, IDEMIA, G+D (including Veridos), and Bundesdruckerei. With a commanding 63.7% share of the smart card market in first half 2018, these vendors are poised to take advantage of credential migration opportunities for governments looking to overhaul legacy credentials and stay ahead of increasing credential standards.
“Vendors that are already well positioned and established within the Government ID market will be able to take advantage of innovative technological advances in citizen credentials to drive higher revenues and decrease production costs.
“The use of polycarbonate as a material can provide higher physical security features, and mobile and derived companions to physical documents provide a convenient solution to citizens while improving citizen-to-government relationships,” concluded Gazeley.