What’s keeping risk leaders up at night? AI, tariffs, and cost cuts
Enterprise risk leaders are most concerned about rising tariffs and trade tensions heading into the second half of 2025, according to a new report from Gartner. The firm’s second-quarter Emerging Risk Report, based on a survey of 223 senior risk, audit, and compliance executives, ranks the escalating trade war as the top emerging risk, up from third in the first quarter.
Top emerging risks of Q2 2025 (Source: Gartner)
The quarterly report tracks over-the-horizon risks cited by ERM leaders, internal auditors, and senior executives. This quarter’s list reflects growing concern over global economic instability and the use of AI technologies, both of which are creating new challenges for risk and security leaders. The findings offer a snapshot of the emerging enterprise risk 2025 landscape as seen by risk professionals across sectors.
“The top five emerging risks in Q2 point to two broad themes for enterprises: a volatile low-growth macroeconomic environment, and a disruptive new technology that poses significant compliance risks,” said Gamika Takkar, director of research in Gartner’s Risk & Audit Practice.
Trade war tops the list as economic worries deepen
In addition to tariffs and trade tensions, executives pointed to a low-growth economy and slowing consumer spending as key concerns. Gartner notes that these macro factors are amplifying risks to supply chains and driving up costs for global operations.
Takkar said this should prompt risk and compliance teams to act quickly. “Risk leaders need to ensure their organizations are prepared for potential disruption to supply chains and increases to the cost of doing business in a global market,” she said. “These impacts have the potential to be more disruptive at a time of slowing global economic growth.”
AI risk is getting harder to control
Two AI-related concerns made the top five. Information governance challenges around AI moved up one spot from Q1 to fourth place. Shadow AI, where employees use public AI tools without oversight, entered the top five for the first time. Gartner attributes this to the widespread availability of generative AI tools and the difficulty of monitoring their use across business functions.
Cutting costs without cutting corners
Cost optimization was also a recurring theme. Executive leaders are focusing more on reducing expenses, but the report warns that rushed or poorly planned cost-cutting measures can introduce new risks, particularly when they affect strategic initiatives or internal controls.
“Broad, rapid cost reductions that fail to consider their impact on both immediate and long-term risk profiles and strategic objectives may ultimately diminish efficiency and outweigh potential savings,” said Takkar.
To manage these pressures, Gartner recommends risk leaders use qualitative assessments to gauge the effect of any proposed cost reductions. That includes evaluating how delays to major initiatives could shift the organization’s risk profile and identifying ways to protect long-term strategic investments.
Takkar said executive teams increasingly rely on internal risk and compliance groups to guide these decisions. “Half of executive leaders Gartner surveyed indicated that they depend on qualitative insights from internal teams, such as compliance and ERM to guide them,” she said.